Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Sold to open 3 puts, TTM Apr 18th '09 5 strike at $1.10 bringing in to my account $330 ( gross before commissions). This Stock I believe and IMHO bottomed at 3.80 is and I missed it, so I figured long term that since we are in a bear market and it may be a while before we bottom that stocks will get cheaper again and there will be sell offs, especially in Automotive, whose history is that it is not a very profitable business. They are paying a 6% dividend unless they suspend it or stop it altogether. I believe given the time, TTM, the quality auto manufacturer in India will supply India its autos for years to come. Therefore, I'm looking to be put this stock at a cost basis of 3.90 when you adjust for the premium I took in for selling these put options. It may be years before this company really grows into a strong blue chip company in India, but I believe they will and once this stock starts to really move up, I think that this is a once in a century time to buy so cheap. Maybe I should just buy the stock, but since I think that the recession will last a while, I think that this stock will probably come down, so I sold the puts instead of going long the stock. It may be years before this stocks trades at 10,20,30 or even 100 US dollars per share, but when it does, I'm hoping to be in there with it at a cost of $3.90 and if I'm put the stock, I hope that they don't stop paying a dividend. This way I'm waiting for growth and getting paid to wait, but if the stock has truly bottomed and only goes up from here, I'll have to say good buy to all of those long term goals and just say hello to the free $330 I brought in today.

Although there is never a free lunch, there is both risk and commissions associated with the trade. Of all my trades from a 1-10 scale, I give this one a 6 short term but a 10 long term and that's the way I roll, try and bring in premium now, but keep an eye on the horizon for long term growth. TTM IMO either folds, which I do not believe that India will let happen, now that governments are getting into businesses that effect their economy, so even if the Country of India buys some stock to keep this Manufacturer afloat, I believe that it will eventually gain its own footing some day and be almost the exclusive supplier for India auto needs and when India really industrializes, TTM will sell a lot of autos. Not that India isn't industrialised now, but so much of it is from outsourcing from countries like ours, but eventually India will have its own market for it own products and has shown that it can compete well.

I guess at the end of the day, my thinking is that this is going to be a long term hold and eventually it will make loads of money, but it's not going to be very soon, but then again, the stock may not get that much cheaper either. I believe the recession is already priced into this stock, it may have bottomed, time only will tell.

Regardless I figure this is a hold until 2015 or longer if it continues to grow from there. I mean why pay taxes if you don't have to. If I'm put this stock down here at theses prices, I'll probably leave it to my kids or charity and never sell it, unless I lose all of my money in the market in the meantime and need the cash. I don't think that is going to happen though!



Sold to open 10 puts, UBS Nov 22nd 12.5 strike at $.20 bringing in to my account $200 ( gross before commissions). This trade was made because UBS now has a clean balance sheet and has actually shown a profit. The swiss Government bought their bad assets or let them store it away in a bad asset depository and since then everything has been good. By good I mean that I doubt that this stock will retreat back to 12.5 within the next 18 days. There is just no reason for it, other than a complete sell off. If that happens I would not mind owning this stock at the 12.5 price, so what the heck, I'll take the chance, sold the puts and I'm looking forward to being a buyer of this stock at the 12.5 price tag or just keeping the $200 less discount commissions.

BTW: That is an important factor when I trade and that is to be with a firm that gives me a discount on my commissions. I have traded with many brokerage firms and I have a lot of managed accounts that I do not trade in but are managed by professional money managers, who probably are not as good as me.

But most likely they get better research and I can only think about so much at once that I cannot handle investing all of my money myself. Therefore I set up a trading account that I trade in with a discount broker and that way I can make an extra $100-$200K per year and have a good hobby as well. But commissions play a big roll in how much money I make. The cheaper the commissions the more profit I will have, but I still have to make sure that the company that brokers my account will be there and I'm 99.9% sure that they will not go under.

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