Monday, November 17, 2008

Lets take a look back at the "ISRG" Trade From Nov 3rd

When I put this trade on, I did my due diligence and checked the fundamentals and the technicals, and my feeling was this stock is too cheap at $120. What I wasn't thinking about was how redemption's are going to effect the market and over swing to the opposite direction, in this case the market will swing to the downside further than it should.

As part of my due diligence I looked at the technicals and here is a Quote from that day " I really don't know what can go wrong that will knock this stock back down that low, but they seem to have a technical support at $127-$130-ish per share."

What I didn't anticipate was the extreme sell-off to come, but based on my technical and fundamental research this is a long term hold stock for me if I get put.

If you look at today's chart on this stock it came down to 126.98 and then bounced off of the technical support I felt it had right there and went back to 130. Will that technical support hold? I don't know, but what I do know is that nothing has changed since I put this position on and that It is unfolding the exact way that I said it may.

So, only time will tell if the selling forces are fierce enough to push it below the 127 mark on the close and then I'll just watch my money go away for a while until the market has time to digest the overselling, but lets see if the technicals hold on.

Well were at the close at ISRG Technicals couldn't hold against the selling pressure, just amother example, IMHO, of throwing the baby out with the bath water. I assume that people are still going to want minimally invasive surgery and they own that market, so I'm stuck in the Bears grip just waiting for it to let go. Still hasn't busted through the strike, but with the way the market continues to behave, I'm not so sure that I won't owning this stock at $80 or less before seeing it really rally again. Like I said earlier, I'm not put the stock yet though and until the fat lady sings on Friday, I'm just short the puts.

I really don't mind owning this stock at the 120 level, I just hate the overselling that I believe is taking place in the meantime. But I love to pick up the bargains. What can I say, It's a Love - Hate relationship I have with the markets these days and any value investor is feeling the same way. If I didn't have a 5+ year outlook, I'd be much more dissatisfied with the way the market is behaving, but by having a longer term out look it sure smells of a good time to look for bargains and when I get put on some, I really should be happy, but I get frustrated that the stocks even sell down as far as they do.

Bought and Sold Google Options for a profit of $900 (less Commissions) Today. Not too big of a daytrading day for me. I was trading the 300 strike puts and the 310 strike calls. I Traded a total of 40 contracts in and out.

3 comments:

  1. Where are your comments?

    ReplyDelete
  2. IDK? That's one of the reasons that I stopped updating the blog was that there didn't seem to be enough interest with comments and so on. Anonymous, If you have a comment, please post it and maybe we can get something going here and then I'll start to update this blog again.

    Thanks,

    Stock and Options Trader.

    ReplyDelete