Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Lets Discuss the Market and My Stategies

First of all, I am terrified of this market and that's a good thing. You have to have respect for the market when you invest or YOU WILL lose your money, but at the same time, is it not the best time to buy when everyone is terrified? They say "Buy on Fear" and "Sell on Greed" therefore I should be buying up a storm because I am so afraid.

That's why I am employing the strategy that I am using, which is to sell out of the money puts and wait until expiration day to see what I bought and what premiums I going to keep because I sold the puts, but the stock never made it down that low, therefore leaving me with profit of all of that premium.

As it stands, only a one stock has come down so far to be into the money since I started this blog about two weeks ago. That means that if everything were to remain the same, I will have only bought one stock this month and kept the premium on everything else. But what about that, is that getting into this market too slow? Not in my opinion. IMHO, I believe that stocks are going to be coming down for quite some time and there are deal, but these deals are not going away anywhere in the near future, for one reason and one reason only, that being the first sentence of this dialog, FEAR!

Anyone who is invested in this market is scared shit-less (Excuse the French) that their entire portfolio is going to zero because the financial structure as we know it is going to change and that they are going to lose their life savings. People are afraid of change, (even though they voted for it), I don't think they were voting a particular change, they just wanted Bush out of there so that he couldn't do any more damage) whether it was his fault or not. So as many people struggle with that fear, what do you think that some of them will do, SELL! And while they are selling frantically, I only want to pick up a little stock here and there for the next year or so. Then I'll be in a position to look back and say Whew, made it through that storm without too much damage, and move on to make profits. That is my thinking, I could be wrong, but it just seems obvious to me as a forward thinker.

With that said lets go to Today's trades as it was a wild market. As many of you have noticed by my trading patterns, I try and make money every day and also put on positions to buy stocks cheaper in the future, so today was a wild ride. We'll start with putting on positions in which I hope to buy stock or keep the premium and then we'll list the wild day trades that I did, and I mean they were wile.

Sold 5 PUTs to Open Goldman Sachs Nov 30 strike puts at .30 bring a credit to my account of $150 (before commissions), the stock is currently trading at 75+ after hour while I am writing this, meaning that if I buy this stock it is because it drops more than 50% in the next 11 days, or I just Keep the Premium. I'm just fine with that as I believe that I Will just keep the premium, but if I get put the stock at 30, Id be just as happy.

Sold 10 Puts to Open VZ Nov 25 Strike at .17 bring a credit into my account of $170.00. before commissions. Verizon currently pays a nice dividend, approximately 6% and is a blue chip company, therefore, I do not believe that the stock will fall that low, but with so much selling pressure of everyone with so much fear and the de-leveraging of hedge funds, you never know.

Those were the positions that I put on for long term, but now lets venture into my day trading because Today was a wild one! Those of you that have been following me, know that lately I've been playing Google Options and Ford stock for day trade purposes.

I Started the day by Buy 20,000 F at 1.86, big mistake as that stock just kept on dropping. Therefore I decided to Average Down, So that the Price would not have to move too much for me to break even so, I bought another 50,000 share at $1.75 and a while later bought another 30,000 shares at 1.74. I have been watching this stock and just about every day near the close, the stock runs back up a little so I had to wait, but this is what it looked like:

Bought 100,000 shares Ford at approx $1.77, then sold them near the close at an average of approx... Sold ,100,000 shares Ford at $1.81 making a profit of approx $4000 Before Commissions, so far so good, right? But wait there's more as I got hooked in a google trade.

I was buying and selling puts in Google for a profit all morning long and then it happened, the swing in the market where the Dow went from down 250ish to only down 10 0r 15 point while I was long 20 Google puts. So here is what that trade looked like:

Bought 20 Google 310 Strike Puts at an average price of $11.60 and sold those same puts a an average price of $10.65 Losing $1900 before commissions. OUCH!

During the Morning Session while I was day trading Google option this is what it looked like:

Bought and sold 10 each Google 280 put even at $7.50 Losing Commissions.

Sold 10 Google 310 Puts at $14.70, Bought Back at $14.50 = $200 Profit, less commissions

Bought 20 Google 310 Puts at $13.300 and Sold at $13.60 another $600 Profit - less commissions

Bought 10 Google 310 Puts at $12.90 and Sold at $13.10 for $200 Profit less commissions

Bought 10 Google 310 Put at $11.20 and Sold at $11.50 for a $300 profit less commissions

Sold to open 3 (partial fill) Google 310 puts at $13.85 Ave Price and Bought 3 back at $12.50 for a profit of $405 less commissions

Bought Google 310 Puts at 11.80 and Sold at $11.90 for $100 less commissions

Bought Google 310 Puts at 11.60 and sold the at 11.90 for a $300 profit - less commissions

So my Google day trading profit & losses subtracting my good trades were a total gain of $205. But after commissions, I probably lost a little money, not much - but what a waste of time and that is the way day trading can end up or worse!

Fortunately for me today I was able to get a couple of good position trades done and that Ford trade put some real money in my Pocket.

The Google trading, for all intensive proposes, was a push.

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